十年首次降息？从鲍威尔国会证词一探究竟（中英文）

　　本月底，美联储或将实施十年来的首次降息。

　　美国当地时间7月10日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，自6月会议以来，经济前景并没有改善，围绕着贸易紧张局势的不确定性和全球经济增速放缓的担忧依然对美国经济行为和前景构成压力。通胀依然疲软，可能比之前预料的持续更久。

　　鲍威尔的讲话强化了市场对美联储降息的预期。周三美股收涨，标普500指数盘中一度升穿3000点大关，为史上首次。降息与否的最终决定将在7月31日议息会议结束之后公布。

　　从鲍威尔演讲稿和回答中可以看出，美联储对于经济前景的担忧正在上升，主要原因有：海外几个主要经济体经济增速显著放缓，以及政府的决策悬而未决，如贸易问题、美国债务上限和脱欧等。鲍威尔承诺，将“采取适当行动”，以捍卫受到贸易争端和全球经济放缓威胁的经济扩张。

　　如果降息基本板上钉钉，那随之而来的疑问是降多少，25个基点or50个基点？高盛预计，美联储在本月底宣布降息25个基点的概率高达75%，而降息50个基点的概率只有15%。芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具显示，市场预期美联储于7月降息的概率维持在100%。至于利率下调幅度，降息25基点的概率为73.4%，降息50基点的概率为26.6%。

　　除了对经济前景表示担忧，鲍威尔此次在国会上还回答了许多其他问题。其中备受关注的问题便与特朗普相关，从去年下半年开始，特朗普对鲍威尔的批评已经屡见报端，并称他有权免去鲍威尔的职务。

　　“如果特朗普要求你辞职，你会怎么做？”民主党众议员、众议院金融服务委员会主席Maxine Waters提问。

　　“我当然不会辞职。”鲍威尔说，并重申，他打算干完四年直至2022年2月任期结束。他还表示，公开批评不会增强更不会削弱美联储的独立性。7月10日，国会两党的议员均明确表示，他们会站在鲍威尔这边。

　　值得关注的是，对于当前广受热议的Libra，鲍威尔也给出了自己的看法。他表示，数月前，美联储就已经与Facebook代表举行了会议，讨论相关问题，并表示目前美联储已成立一个特别小组研究Facebook的加密货币。

　　鲍威尔强调，“Libra引发了许多关于隐私、洗钱、消费者保护和金融稳定方面的严重关切。在该计划继续推进之前，这些关切应该得到彻底和公开地解决。”

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　　7月10日，美国华盛顿，美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院金融服务委员会作证词陈述。

　　REUTERS/Erin Scott

　　向国会提交的半年度货币政策报告

　　Jerome H.Powell 主席

　　致金融服务委员会，美国众议院，华盛顿特区。

　　沃特斯主席，麦克亨利高级成员，以及其他委员会成员，我很高兴向国会提交美联储的半年度货币政策报告。

　　首先，我要说的是，我和我的同事强烈支持国会为货币政策设定的最大就业和价格稳定目标。我们致力于就美联储的政策和活动提供明确的解释。国会赋予我们重要的独立性，使我们能够根据客观分析和数据有效地实现法定目标。我们感谢独立性带来了透明度的义务，这样我们就可以为国会和公众负责。

　　今天，我将回顾当前的经济形势和前景，然后再转向货币政策。我还将提供我们对制定货币政策框架的现行公众审查的最新情况。

　　经济现状与展望

　　经济在2019年上半年表现相当不错，目前的扩张正处于第11年。然而，通胀一直低于联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的对称2%目标，贸易紧张和对全球增长的担忧等交叉因素一直在影响经济活动和前景。

　　劳动力市场保持健康。从1月到6月，平均每月增加17.2万个工作岗位。这个数字低于去年平均每月22.3万，但高于为进入劳动力市场的新工人提供就业机会的速度。因此，失业率从12月的3.9%下降到6月的3.7%，接近50年来的最低水平。就业机会仍然充足，雇主越来越愿意雇用技能较少的工人并对他们进行培训。因此，近年来，强劲的就业市场带来的好处得到了更广泛的分享。事实上，低技能工人的工资增长更大。也就是说，一些人口群体和国家某些地区的个人继续面临挑战。例如，非裔美国人和拉美裔人的失业率仍然远远高于白人和亚洲人的失业率。同样，在城市地区，有工作的人口比例高于农村社区，这一差距在过去十年中扩大了。7月份货币政策报告中的一个框提供了不同教育水平的个人在当前扩张中就业和工资增长的比较。

　　2019年第一季度，国内生产总值（GDP）年增长率为3.1%，与去年同期持平。这一强劲数据主要受净出口和库存结构因素推动，这些因素通常不是持续势头的可靠指标。经济增长的更可靠的驱动力是消费支出和商业投资。尽管第一季度消费者支出增长乏力，但新数据显示，消费支出已反弹，目前正稳步增长。然而，企业投资的增长似乎明显放缓，第二季度的整体增长似乎有所放缓。企业固定投资放缓可能反映出对贸易紧张和全球经济增长放缓的担忧。此外，第一季度住房投资和制造业产出下降，第二季度似乎又有所下降。

　　在去年大部分时间接近我们2%的目标后，以个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）12个月变化为衡量标准的总体消费者价格通胀今年早些时候有所下降，5月份为1.5%。不包括食品和能源价格的核心PCE通胀12个月来的变化，往往是未来通胀的更好指标，今年也有所下降，5月份为1.6%。

　　我们的基本预期是经济增长保持稳定，劳动力市场保持强劲，通货膨胀随着时间的推移回到委员会2%的目标。然而，近几个月来，对前景的不确定性有所增加。特别是，一些主要外国经济体的经济势头似乎有所放缓，这种疲软可能会影响美国经济。此外，一些政府政策问题尚未得到解决，包括贸易发展、联邦债务上限和脱欧。还有一个风险是，疲软的通胀将比我们目前预期的更为持久。我们正在仔细监测这些发展，我们将继续评估它们对美国经济前景和通胀的影响。

　　美国还继续面临重要的长期挑战。在美国，那些处于主要工作年的人的劳动力参与率现在比其他大多数经济体都要低。正如我提到的，在全国不同的人口群体和地区，劳动力市场存在令人不安的差异。中低收入的相对停滞以及低收入家庭向上流动的水平低，也一直受到关注。此外，找到促进生产力增长的方法，从长远来看，这将导致工资和生活水平的提高，这仍然是国家的一项高度优先事项。我仍然担心联邦债务的高增长所带来的长期影响，这会抑制私人投资，进而降低生产力和整体经济增长。美国经济的长期活力将得益于解决这些问题的努力。

　　货币政策

　　在此背景下，联邦公开市场委员会今年上半年将联邦基金利率的目标范围维持在2-1/4%至2-1/2%。在1月、3月和5月的会议上，我们表示，我们将耐心等待，因为我们确定未来对联邦基金利率的调整可能适合支持我们的最大就业和价格稳定目标。

　　在我们5月份的会议上，我们注意到全球增长和贸易的持续交互作用，但有初步证据表明这些交互正在缓和。来自中国和欧洲的最新数据令人鼓舞，有报道称与中国的贸易谈判取得了进展。我们持续的耐心立场似乎是适当的，委员会认为没有强有力的理由调整我们的政策利率。

　　然而，自从我们5月份的会议以来，这些交互因素已经重新合并，产生了更大的不确定性。贸易的明显进展变得更加不确定，我们在商业和农业方面的接触报告加剧了对贸易发展的担忧。来自世界各地的增长指标在网上令人失望，引发了人们对全球经济疲软将继续影响美国经济的担忧。这些担忧可能导致商业信心在最近的一些调查中有所下降，并可能已经开始向输入的数据显示出来。

　　在我们6月份的会议声明中，我们指出，鉴于经济前景的不确定性增加，通胀压力减弱，我们将密切监测输入的信息对经济前景的影响，并将采取适当行动维持经济增长。许多联邦公开市场委员会的参与者认为，采取稍微宽松的货币政策的理由得到了加强。从那时起，根据输入的数据和其他发展，贸易紧张局势的不确定性和对全球经济实力的担忧似乎继续影响着美国经济前景。通货膨胀压力仍然保持沉默。

　　今年，联邦公开市场委员会就我们实施货币政策的框架和完成美联储减持证券计划作出了一些重要决定。在1月份的会议上，我们决定继续实施货币政策，利用现有的政策体系，储备充足，并强调，我们准备根据经济和金融发展调整任何细节，以完成资产负债表正常化。在3月份的会议上，我们传达了我们的意图，即从5月份开始，减缓美联储证券持有总量的下降，并在9月份结束这些持有量的减少。7月份的货币政策报告提供了这些决定的细节。

　　7月份的货币政策报告还包括对货币政策规则的更新。联邦公开市场委员会定期研究货币政策规则，根据通货膨胀率和失业率建议联邦基金利率水平。尽管使用这些规则需要仔细判断，但我仍然认为这些规则很有用。

　　我们正在对我们的货币政策战略、工具和沟通进行公开审查，这是对联邦公开市场委员会的第一次此类审查。我们的动机是考虑如何改善委员会当前的政策框架，并使美联储处于最佳地位，以实现最大的就业和价格稳定。该审查始于通过一系列联邦调查局的倾听活动，与广泛的人和团体进行接触和协商。联邦公开市场委员会将在即将举行的会议上审议与审查有关的问题。我们将公开报告讨论的结果。

　　谢谢。我将很高兴回答你们的问题。

　　以下是英文全文：

　　Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

　　Chair Jerome H. Powell

　　Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C.

　　Chairwoman Waters, Ranking Member McHenry, and other members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

　　Let me start by saying that my colleagues and I strongly support the goals of maximum employment and price stability that Congress has set for monetary policy. We are committed to providing clear explanations about our policies and activities. Congress has given us an important degree of independence so that we can effectively pursue our statutory goals based on objective analysis and data. We appreciate that our independence brings with it an obligation for transparency so that you and the public can hold us accountable.

　　Today I will review the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy. I will also provide an update of our ongoing public review of our framework for setting monetary policy.

　　Current Economic Situation and Outlook

　　The economy performed reasonably well over the first half of 2019, and the current expansion is now in its 11th year. However, inflation has been running below the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) symmetric 2 percent objective, and crosscurrents, such as trade tensions and concerns about global growth, have been weighing on economic activity and the outlook.

　　The labor market remains healthy. Job gains averaged 172,000 per month from January through June. This number is lower than the average of 223,000 a month last year but above the pace needed to provide jobs for new workers entering the labor force. Consequently, the unemployment rate moved down from 3.9 percent in December to 3.7 percent in June, close to its lowest level in 50 years. Job openings remain plentiful, and employers are increasingly willing to hire workers with fewer skills and train them. As a result, the benefits of a strong job market have been more widely shared in recent years. Indeed, wage gains have been greater for lower-skilled workers. That said, individuals in some demographic groups and in certain parts of the country continue to face challenges. For example, unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics remain well above the rates for whites and Asians. Likewise, the share of the population with a job is higher in urban areas than in rural communities, and this gap widened over the past decade. A box in the July Monetary Policy Report provides a comparison of employment and wage gains over the current expansion for individuals with different levels of education.

　　Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019, similar to last year's pace. This strong reading was driven largely by net exports and inventories—components that are not generally reliable indicators of ongoing momentum. The more reliable drivers of growth in the economy are consumer spending and business investment. While growth in consumer spending was weak in the first quarter, incoming data show that it has bounced back and is now running at a solid pace. However, growth in business investment seems to have slowed notably, and overall growth in the second quarter appears to have moderated. The slowdown in business fixed investment may reflect concerns about trade tensions and slower growth in the global economy. In addition, housing investment and manufacturing output declined in the first quarter and appear to have decreased again in the second quarter.

　　After running close to our 2 percent objective over much of last year, overall consumer price inflation, measured by the 12-month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), declined earlier this year and stood at 1.5 percent in May. The 12-month change in core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices and tends to be a better indicator of future inflation, has also come down this year and was 1.6 percent in May.

　　Our baseline outlook is for economic growth to remain solid, labor markets to stay strong, and inflation to move back up over time to the Committee's 2 percent objective. However, uncertainties about the outlook have increased in recent months. In particular, economic momentum appears to have slowed in some major foreign economies, and that weakness could affect the U.S. economy. Moreover, a number of government policy issues have yet to be resolved, including trade developments, the federal debt ceiling, and Brexit. And there is a risk that weak inflation will be even more persistent than we currently anticipate. We are carefully monitoring these developments, and we will continue to assess their implications for the U.S economic outlook and inflation.

　　The nation also continues to confront important longer-run challenges. Labor force participation by those in their prime working years is now lower in the United States than in most other nations with comparable economies. As I mentioned, there are troubling labor market disparities across demographic groups and different parts of the country. The relative stagnation of middle and lower incomes and low levels of upward mobility for lower-income families are also ongoing concerns. In addition, finding ways to boost productivity growth, which leads to rising wages and living standards over the longer term, should remain a high national priority. And I remain concerned about the longer-term effects of high and rising federal debt, which can restrain private investment and, in turn, reduce productivity and overall economic growth. The longer-run vitality of the U.S. economy would benefit from efforts to address these issues.

　　Monetary Policy

　　Against this backdrop, the FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 2?1/4 to 2-1/2 percent in the first half of this year. At our January, March, and May meetings, we stated that we would be patient as we determined what future adjustments to the federal funds rate might be appropriate to support our goals of maximum employment and price stability.

　　At the time of our May meeting, we were mindful of the ongoing crosscurrents from global growth and trade, but there was tentative evidence that these crosscurrents were moderating. The latest data from China and Europe were encouraging, and there were reports of progress in trade negotiations with China. Our continued patient stance seemed appropriate, and the Committee saw no strong case for adjusting our policy rate.

　　Since our May meeting, however, these crosscurrents have reemerged, creating greater uncertainty. Apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty, and our contacts in business and agriculture report heightened concerns over trade developments. Growth indicators from around the world have disappointed on net, raising concerns that weakness in the global economy will continue to affect the U.S. economy. These concerns may have contributed to the drop in business confidence in some recent surveys and may have started to show through to incoming data.

　　In our June meeting statement, we indicated that, in light of increased uncertainties about the economic outlook and muted inflation pressures, we would closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would act as appropriate to sustain the expansion. Many FOMC participants saw that the case for a somewhat more accommodative monetary policy had strengthened. Since then, based on incoming data and other developments, it appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook. Inflation pressures remain muted.

　　The FOMC has made a number of important decisions this year about our framework for implementing monetary policy and our plans for completing the reduction of the Fed's securities holdings. At our January meeting, we decided to continue to implement monetary policy using our current policy regime with ample reserves, and emphasized that we are prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments. At our March meeting, we communicated our intention to slow, starting in May, the decline in the Fed's aggregate securities holdings and to end the reduction in these holdings in September. The July Monetary Policy Report provides details on these decisions.

　　The July Monetary Policy Report also includes an update on monetary policy rules. The FOMC routinely looks at monetary policy rules that recommend a level for the federal funds rate based on inflation and unemployment rates. I continue to find these rules helpful, although using these rules requires careful judgment.

　　We are conducting a public review of our monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications—the first review of its kind for the FOMC. Our motivation is to consider ways to improve the Committee's current policy framework and to best position the Fed to achieve maximum employment and price stability. The review has started with outreach to and consultation with a broad range of people and groups through a series of Fed Listens events. The FOMC will consider questions related to the review at upcoming meetings. We will publicly report the outcome of our discussions.

　　Thank you. I am happy to respond to your questions.

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